How To Read A Forecast You Don't Trust

Most forecasts are a negotiation between hope and history. Reps round up. Managers round down. Leadership picks a number somewhere in the middle and calls it a plan.

The more useful question isn't "what's the number" — it's "what has to be true for this number to happen," stage by stage, deal by deal.

That single reframe is usually enough to reveal which parts of the forecast are real.